Earl’s first look at the NCAA Tournament

This year’s NCAA Tournament has the potential to be a wild and exciting affair with many possible surprises. The four No. 1 seeds of Kansas, Kentucky, Duke and Syracuse have seemed to separate themselves during the regular season. But after that, everything appears to be up in the air. It should make for some heartstopping action, especially during that first weekend. Here are some of my early thoughts on the Big Dance before play gets underway on Thursday.

*Mid Majors get a little more respect, sort of

  In recent years, the programs outside of the BCS conferences saw their at-large berths dwindling down to a precious few. After George Mason’s run to the Final Four in 2007, you thought the “mid-major” conferences would get a little more respect. Instead, it went the other way. In 2008, there were six at-large berths handed out to mid-majors. In 2009, that number went down to four at-large berths. However, that number is back up to eight as the number of mid-major at-large berths doubled. This year, teams such as Illinois (Big Ten), Virginia Tech (ACC) and Mississippi State (SEC) were squeezed out for at-large berths by the likes of UTEP (Conference USA) and Utah State (WAC).

  That seems like good news to the non-BCS conferences. However, there is a catch. The tournament committee did another slick job of matching up several of those non-BCS schools in first-round games. It has become a popular past-time by the committee. Each regional has one such game.

  For example:

  UNLV (Mountain West) will face Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley Conference) in an 8 vs. 9 matchup in the Midwest Regional. The reward for surviving this game; No. 1 Kansas.

  In the West, Horizon League champ Butler (No. 5 seed) will meet No. 12 seed UTEP (CUSA) in a first-round game. We wouldn’t want to risk one of those middle-of-the-road BCS schools against a mid-major powerhouse such as Butler with its two Sweet 16 appearances would we? It is very rare that we see a highly-seeded mid-major team get to face a double-digit seed from a BCS conference in the first round.

  Down South, Richmond (Atlantic 10) and a No. 7 seed seed will face West Coast Conference Tournament champ St. Mary’s (No. 10 seed) in the first round.

  Back East, you have Atlantic 10 champion Temple going against Ivy League champion Cornell in a 5 vs. 12 matchup that is one of the most intriguing first-round games of the tournaments. Cornell shoots the 3-pointer better than any team in the nation while Temple defends as well as any team in the nation. I think both of these teams got a little low-balled on their seeding in this matchup.

  Remember, this technique has also been practiced in football. I know we all could remember the collective groan of the nation when it was announced that non-BCS schools Boise State and TCU were paired against each other in a BCS game (Fiesta Bowl) instead of both of them facing BCS conference schools.

  *Can you imagine for one second if someone waved a magic wand over the Texas Longhorns for one weekend and they actually played to the level of their talent, what kind of matchup we would have in the second round against No. 1 seed Kentucky in the East Regional. After being ranked No. 1 in January, the Longhorns bumbled and stumbled all the way down to a No. 8 seed where they are relegated to a first-round game with No. 9 seed and fellow underachiever Wake Forest.

  *Potential early land mines for No. 1 seeds

  Midwest: Kansas is the favorite to win the regional and go on to win the national championship, but there are plenty of good teams in the St. Louis regional. Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland and Michigan State are the 2-5 seeds. The only two teams to beat the Jayhawks this year are Tennessee and Oklahoma State. Guess what? They are the No. 6 and 7 seeds. As far as an early test, Northern Iowa as the No. 9 seed can make things uncomfortable for an unsuspecting top team with its size and physical, stifling defense.

  West: No. 1 Syracuse has a potential second-round matchup with No. 8 Gonzaga. The Zags are now considered a national power, so it has been a while since they have been in the role of giant killer.

  East: As I mentioned before, if the Texas Longhorns of early January mysteriously showed up to face No. 1 Kentucky, this one could be fun. I’m not holding my breath though. The Longhorns looked awfully shaky the last month of the season. Still, who knows?

  South: No. 1 Duke could see Louisville in the second round. Louisville did beat No. 1 seed Syracuse twice. However, a bigger challenge could loom in the Sweet 16 from Texas A&M.

.

  *Oh, when the Saints

  Last year, my big first-round upset special was Siena knocking off Ohio State. What made Siena’s first-round upset over the Buckeyes even more impressive was the fact that it was in Dayton in front of a sea of Ohio State fans. The Saints nearly knocked off No. 1 seed Louisville in the second round. I’m going back to the Siena well once again. This time, I have them as a No. 13 seed knocking off No. 4 seed Purdue in the first round of the South Regional.

  *Most ridiculous potential first-round upset: In the South, watch the matchup between No. 3 Baylor against No. 14 Sam Houston State. Baylor is a Final Four contender, but Sam Houston State’s head coach Bob Marlin really knows what he’s doing on the sidelines. I’m just saying. Murray State and Vanderbilt in a No. 4 vs. 13 match-up has captured my interest as well. No. 2 seed Villanova had better shake themselves out of its funk, because No. 15 seed Robert Morris is not bad.

  *BCS double-digit seed to watch: Lorenzo Romar’s Washington Huskies are hiding in the East regional with a No. 11 seed, waiting to strike. After struggling for much of the Pac 10 season, the Huskies are on a roll in winning the Pac 10 Tournament. They have a lot of speed and athleticism. Watch out.

click here to enlarge bracket